(Discussion based off the article The Future of Retail by Nicholas Negroponte.)
The idea of the article was pretty obvious, but a direct thesis wasn't. The closest I could come up with from him was "very soon everybody will be digital." This could be expanded (therefore narrowing... it's an inversely proportional relationship, you know?) to say: "Very soon shopping will be digital."
Norman's all about user-focused design. Negroponte says "In the digital world, consumers hold almost all the power." There you go. Negroponte also notes that "consumers will inevitably provide the pressure for change." Now, if the seller/retailer wants to stay in business, he best be thinking of how to keep them customers off the interweb. In fact he figures that shopping will end up being based mostly off of the experience itself or reflective aspect associated with the store- or at least increasing its longevity through these characteristics.
As for the author's theory on shopping... it's been over ten years and I don't know anyone who online grocery shops- yet. Yet some aspects remain true. A bookstore is a terrible place to find a book. Amazon.com is just easier and more convenient. People are rarely home to receive their packages. Many people fin that, say, clothes shopping is such a drag, they would rather just buy online. I have also noticed that many, especially car dealerships, offer the option of "shopping in your pajamas!" aka online shopping. And sometimes shops are gathering places, a place for young people to hang-out, whatever.
I don't generally like to make outward predictions, but... I would say that, yes, online shopping is likely to increase, but there are many reasons that it won't be the next big thing. I do agree with Negroponte that buying from peer-to-peer could become popular. There are many places, like craigslist, in which people sell new or used things to each other. Inexpensive. Effective. And, because of the increasing awareness of global warming and resources conservation, I think recycling and reusing products/goods will gain more momentum. I'm just waiting for the days when we are encouraged by the government to start our own home gardens!
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